Comment on Cored Wire Market 2019 (Second Half) and Outlook on Later Market
In July, the price of cold rolled strip steel still fluctuates frequently. In early July, it dropped slightly after continuous rise. In the midmonth, it rose again by 80 yuan per ton or so cumulatively in various specifications. In later July, it vibrated slightly by 20 yuan per ton or so in various specifications and then fell back quickly.
However, frequent price fluctuation has no large influence on the cored wire manufacturers purchasing according to demand monthly. Numerous cored wire manufactures have been accustomed to it and most of them still rely on supply for their regular customers. The prices of the main products such as silicon calcium cored wire, solid pure calcium cored wire, seamless metal calcium cored wire and ferrotitanium cored wire have been stable except carbon cored wire rose and nodularizer cored wire continues to be reduce due to continuous market depression and demand reduction.
In the midmonth, the cored wire market has entered a slack season in which the downstream manufacturers generally start to get equipment maintenance and limited production due to environmental protection. The entire cored wire market is relatively deserted with poor market situation and reduction of order quantity.
In August, cored wire market was still in a slack season in which the total demand is not high. Moreover, in order to meet the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, reduce air pollution and guarantee the environment, limited production and suspended production were implemented for a number of steel mills throughout the country. For this reason, demand for various cored wires further reduced and the order quantity decreased. Especially the demand for nodularizer cored wire continues to be low. Except slight price reduction of silicon calcium cored wire, the prices of other cored wire cored wire products remained stable with no obvious fluctuation.
In September, as the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, environmental protection has been further intensified. Many steel mills throughout the country were still in limited production and suspended production. Therefore, the demand for various cored wires is unlikely to increase for a short while. The price of cold rolled strip steel began to fall, which comparing with the end of August, reduced by about 200 yuan per ton in various specifications. However, it has little impact on downstream demand for cored wire. There was no sign that the prices of cored wire products would drop accordingly.
In October, as the downstream steel mills put back on production one after another, the capacity increased. For this reason, the demand for silicon calcium cored wire, solid pure calcium cored wire, ferrotitanium cored wire and carbon cored wire was stable. As operation rate of downstream foundry works got improved, the market demand for nodularizer cored wire which has been sluggish for a long time rose steadily and order of some manufacturers increased too. In terms of raw materials, the price of calcium silicon, metal calcium wire, metal calcium particle, ferro-titanium and rare earth magnesium silicon remained stable; the price of cold rolled strip steel, which continuously dropped previously, also tended to be stable. For this reason, the cored wire market was still calm with no significant price fluctuation.
In November, as the heating season is coming, in northern China, especially Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and the surrounding areas, in order to prevent air pollution and reduce haze as much as possible, the environmental protection departments have intensified inspection. The numerous downstream steel mills have taken limited production, shift production or suspended production according to atmospheric condition. For this reason, their operation rate reduced and accordingly, the demand for cored wire reduced including nodularizer cored wire which just got improved previously. With no concentrated heating, in southern China, the downstream steel mills are little impacted by environmental protection factors so that their demand for cored wire is relatively stable. Price of some cored wire products fluctuated, of which that of silicon calcium cored wire and carbon cored wire dropped slightly, while that of ferro-calcium cored wire and nodularizer cored wire rose slightly, but the cored wire market still remains stable on the whole.
In December, a haze lasted a long time and covers a large area including North China, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Huang-Huai, Anhui, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Environmental supervision department in the areas intensified control so that numerous steel mills, cored wire manufacturers and raw material factories limited or suspended production. For this reason, operation rate of cored wire manufacturers in northern area is low. In late December, the haze dispersed gradually. The steel mills and cored wire manufacturers put back on production successively and got in o stock up stage at the end of the year. Demand for cored wire increased significantly. The raw material manufacturers received more orders generally. As the holiday of Chinese New Year is approaching, they have to complete the heavy production task in the limited time.
Recently, impacted by weather factor, operation rate of numerous cored wire manufacturers is low. Because the steel enterprises are about to stock up at the end of the year, the demand for cored wire is increasing. It is estimated that a short-term short supply will occur in the later market and the prices might rise slightly.